Estimates of the number of casualties vary. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, said at least 3, people had been killed, among them 1, civilians.
Other groups say the total was higher. The immense task of rebuilding the city may take years. Clearing operations are already under way to uncover any jihadist sleeper cells and remove landmines.
Rebuilding Mosul is being seen as a major challenge for the Iraqi government. The jihadists exploited the chaos and divisions within both Syria and Iraq. IS grew out of what was al-Qaeda in Iraq, which was formed by Sunni militants after the US-led invasion in and became a major force in the country's sectarian insurgency.
In , the group joined the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where it found a safe haven and easy access to weapons. At the same time, it took advantage of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, as well as widespread Sunni anger at the sectarian policies of the country's Shia-led government. In , the group began seizing control of territory in Syria and changed its name to Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Isis or Isil.
The following year, Isis overran large swathes of northern and western Iraq, proclaimed the creation of a "caliphate", and became known as "Islamic State". A subsequent advance into areas controlled by Iraq's Kurdish minority, and the killing or enslaving of thousands of members of the Yazidi religious group, prompted the US-led coalition to begin air strikes on IS positions in Iraq in August As IS is now being forced out of Iraq and Syria, another problem is the likely resurgence of hostilities between rival groups.
Exact numbers of casualties from the conflict with IS are not available. The UN says at least 3, civilians were killed in acts of violence in Iraq in , fewer than the total of 6, - although the true figure is likely to be higher as the organisation has been unable to verify some reports of casualties in the Mosul area.
According to Iraq Body Count, the total number of civilian deaths in Iraq since stood at 68, up to the end of February The annual number of casualties has decreased slightly each year since , from a high of 20, in that year to 13, in The UN no longer keeps track of casualty figures in Syria due to the inaccessibility of many areas and the conflicting reports from the various parties to the war there.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, reported in March that it had documented the deaths of more than , people, including , civilians, since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began But it noted that the figure did not include 56, people who were missing and presumed dead. It estimated a further , deaths had not been documented.
In Syria, the air campaign began in September A year later, the US defence department declared that IS frontlines in much of northern and central Iraq and northern Syria had been pushed back significantly by US-led coalition air strikes and ground operations. Despite this, IS has been able to capture new territory of strategic value over the same period, including the city of Ramadi in Iraq's Anbar province and Palmyra in Syria's Homs province. Analysts also note that the US figures do not necessarily reflect the situation on the ground.
In reality, IS militants exercise complete control over only a small part of that territory, which includes cities and towns, main roads, oil fields and military facilities. They enjoy freedom of movement in the largely uninhabited areas outside what the Institute for the Study of War calls "control zones", but they would struggle to defend them. Similarly, it is not entirely clear how many people are living under full or partial IS control across Syria and Iraq.
In March , the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross put the figure at more than 10 million. Inside areas where IS has implemented its strict interpretation of Sharia, women are forced to wear full veils, public beheadings are common and non-Muslims are forced to choose between paying a special tax, converting or death. But he noted that there had been "substantial attrition" in its ranks since US-led coalition air strikes began in August To help mitigate the manpower losses, IS has turned to conscription in some areas.
A significant number of IS fighters are neither Iraqi nor Syrian. In October , National Counterterrorism Center Director Nicholas Rasmussen told Congress that the group had attracted more than 28, foreign fighters.
They included at least 5, Westerners, approximately of them Americans, he said. In late , IS began to lay claim to attacks outside its territory. An Egyptian affiliate, Sinai Province , said it downed a Russian passenger plane in the Sinai peninsula, killing all on board. It gave no details , but the UK and US later said it was likely that a bomb caused the crash - whether or not a bomber was linked to IS.
IS also claimed twin blasts in the Lebanese capital Beirut which killed at least 41 people. And then on 13 November, at least people were killed in a wave of attacks around Paris. IS said it was behind the violence - French President Francois Hollande described it as "an act of war".
Battle for Iraq and Syria in maps. IS fighters have access to, and are capable of using, a wide variety of small arms and heavy weapons, including truck-mounted machine-guns, rocket launchers, anti-aircraft guns and portable surface-to-air missile systems. They have also captured tanks and armoured vehicles from the Syrian and Iraqi armies. Their haul of vehicles from the Iraqi army includes armoured Humvees and bomb-proof trucks originally manufactured for the US military.
Some have been packed with explosives and used to devastating effect in suicide bomb attacks. The group is believed to have a flexible supply chain that ensures a constant supply of ammunition and small arms for its fighters. Their considerable firepower helped them overrun Kurdish Peshmerga positions in northern Iraq in August and the Iraqi army in Ramadi in May The militant group is believed to be the world's wealthiest.
What if the true cause of instability in the Middle East is precisely the absence of legitimate authority, a problem the Trump administration seems to have little interest in talking about? As the Middle East analyst Kenneth M. The emergence and growth of terrorist groups in particular places at particular times is a product of other factors, and those other factors will have to be addressed at some point.
You cannot fight terrorism just by fighting terrorism, and to think that you can is an illusion that has long hobbled U. One might hope the opposite would occur — that with critical distance from the events themselves, we might be better able to assess what went wrong the last time around.
The killing of Baghdadi is no doubt a success, but self-congratulation will take us only so far — and not nearly far enough. Order from Chaos. A how-to guide for managing the end of the post-Cold War era.
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